Difference between revisions of "Research Technical Details"
MikeTheRed (talk | contribs) (→Research Time Notes: This section has a lot of repetition at this point... Edited for clarity; removed reference to the "One Lab" column.) |
MikeTheRed (talk | contribs) (I hope folks find this helpful. I will also add some other observations to the Talk page soon.) |
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== Research Time == |
== Research Time == |
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+ | For a basic version of this table, see [[Research Hours]]. |
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+ | {| {{StdCenterTable}} class="sortable" cellpadding=5 |
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− | {{:Research Hours}} |
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+ | |- {{StdDescTable_Heading}} valign = "bottom" |
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+ | ! Min. |
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+ | Days |
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+ | ! Known |
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+ | At |
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+ | ! Ave. |
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+ | Days |
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+ | ! Max. |
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+ | Days |
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+ | ! |
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+ | Research Project |
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+ | ! |
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+ | Ave. |
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+ | ! |
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+ | Good |
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+ | ! |
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+ | Exc. |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 25 || 34 || 50 || 75 || Laser Weapons || 4 || 7 || 13 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 50 || 67 || 100 || 150 || Laser Pistol || 8 || 14 || 26 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 75 || 100 || 150 || 225 || Alien Entertainment || 12 || 21 || 39 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 75 || 100 || 150 || 225 || Alien Food || 12 || 21 || 39 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 75 || 100 || 150 || 225 || Alien Surgery || 12 || 21 || 39 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 75 || 100 || 150 || 225 || Examination Room || 12 || 21 || 39 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 85 || 114 || 170 || 255 || Live Terrorists (4 types) || 14 || 24 || 45 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 90 || 120 || 180 || 270 || Alien Corpses (11 types) || 15 || 26 || 47 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 90 || 120 || 180 || 270 || Motion Scanner || 15 || 26 || 47 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 90 || 120 || 180 || 270 || Personal Armor || 15 || 26 || 47 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 90 || 120 || 180 || 270 || Stun Bomb || 15 || 26 || 47 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 95 || 127 || 190 || 285 || Live Sectoid Commander || 16 || 27 || 50 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 96 || 128 || 192 || 288 |
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+ | | Live Aliens (22 types) |
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+ | | 16 || 27 || 50 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 100 || 134 || 200 || 300 || Alien Grenade || 16 || 28 || 52 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 103 || 137 || 205 || 308 || Power Suit || 17 || 29 || 54 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 105 || 140 || 210 || 315 || Medi-Kit || 17 || 30 || 55 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 150 || 200 || 300 || 450 || Alien Origins || 24 || 42 || 78 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 150 || 200 || 300 || 450 || Blaster Bomb || 24 || 42 || 78 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 150 || 200 || 300 || 450 || Laser Rifle || 24 || 42 || 78 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 165 || 220 || 330 || 495 || Flying Suit || 27 || 47 || 86 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 180 || 240 || 360 || 540 || Mind Shield || 29 || 51 || 94 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 200 || 267 || 400 || 600 || Alien Alloys || 32 || 56 || 104 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 200 || 267 || 400 || 600 || Heavy Plasma Clip || 32 || 56 || 104 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 200 || 267 || 400 || 600 || Plasma Pistol Clip || 32 || 56 || 104 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 200 || 267 || 400 || 600 || Plasma Rifle Clip || 32 || 56 || 104 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 210 || 280 || 420 || 630 || Laser Cannon || 34 || 59 || 110 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 210 || 280 || 420 || 630 || Psi-Lab || 34 || 59 || 110 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 225 || 300 || 450 || 675 || Elerium-115 || 36 || 63 || 117 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 225 || 300 || 450 || 675 || UFO Construction || 36 || 63 || 117 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 225 || 300 || 450 || 675 || UFO Navigation || 36 || 63 || 117 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 225 || 300 || 450 || 675 || UFO Power Source || 36 || 63 || 117 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 230 || 307 || 460 || 690 || Heavy Laser || 37 || 65 || 120 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 250 || 334 || 500 || 750 || Psi-Amp || 40 || 70 || 130 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 250 || 334 || 500 || 750 || The Martian Solution || 40 || 70 || 130 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 255 || 340 || 510 || 765 || Laser Defenses || 41 || 72 || 133 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 275 || 367 || 550 || 825 || Small Launcher || 44 || 77 || 143 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 300 || 400 || 600 || 900 || Cydonia or Bust || 48 || 84 || 156 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 300 || 400 || 600 || 900 || Mind Probe || 48 || 84 || 156 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 300 || 400 || 600 || 900 || New Fighter Craft (Firestorm) || 48 || 84 || 156 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 300 || 400 || 600 || 900 || Plasma Pistol || 48 || 84 || 156 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 310 || 414 || 620 || 930 || Plasma Defenses || 50 || 87 || 162 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 330 || 440 || 660 || 990 || Plasma Beam || 53 || 93 || 172 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 335 || 447 || 670 || 1005 || Hyper-Wave Decoder || 54 || 94 || 175 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 350 || 467 || 700 || 1050 || New Fighter-Transporter (Lightning) || 56 || 98 || 182 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 350 || 467 || 700 || 1050 || Plasma Rifle || 56 || 98 || 182 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 400 || 534 || 800 || 1200 || Fusion Defenses || 64 || 112 || 208 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 400 || 534 || 800 || 1200 || Heavy Plasma || 64 || 112 || 208 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 440 || 587 || 880 || 1320 || Fusion Missile (Fusion Ball & Launcher) || 71 || 124 || 229 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 450 || 600 || 900 || 1350 || Blaster Launcher || 72 || 126 || 234 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 450 || 600 || 900 || 1350 || Ultimate Craft (Avenger) || 72 || 126 || 234 |
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+ | |- |
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+ | | 465 || 620 || 930 || 1395 || Grav Shield || 75 || 131 || 242 |
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+ | |} |
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+ | '''Minimum Days''' is the minimum number of scientist-days needed to research this project (50% of Average Days). |
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+ | '''Known At''' is the point at which progress goes from Unknown to a progress rating (67% of Average Days). |
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+ | '''Average Days''' is the average number of scientist-days needed for this project (from [[RESEARCH.DAT]]). |
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+ | '''Maximum Days''' is the maximum number of scientist-days needed to research this project (150% of Average Days). |
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+ | '''Ave'''rage, '''Good''', and '''Exc'''ellent shows the <u>minimum</u> number of scientists needed for this progress rating (see below). |
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− | == Research Time |
+ | == Research Time Basics == |
− | *The |
+ | *The game starts with the average hours needed (from [[RESEARCH.DAT]]) and rolls to see how long a specific project will take (±50%). Laser Weapons take an average of 50 research days, but in practice can take from 25 to 75 days. The time it will take is determined when the project is started, and is stored in [[PROJECT.DAT]]. |
* Projects only progress and check completion '''at midnight''', so what scientists are doing the rest of the day – traveling between bases, on different projects, or sitting in the coffee room unassigned – is irrelevant. All that matters is what (if any) projects they are on at midnight. This single check also means projects take a minimum of one day. |
* Projects only progress and check completion '''at midnight''', so what scientists are doing the rest of the day – traveling between bases, on different projects, or sitting in the coffee room unassigned – is irrelevant. All that matters is what (if any) projects they are on at midnight. This single check also means projects take a minimum of one day. |
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* Each midnight, the game subtracts the number of research days according to how many scientists you have assigned to that project; the project is done when the counter reaches zero. If a project will require 31 man days and you have 10 scientists assigned, it will take four days to complete (and you have wasted nine). You could assign a lot of scientists until you reach the point where it might be completed, and gradually taper them. But [[PROJECT.DAT|without cheating]], there's no way of telling just how long it will take. |
* Each midnight, the game subtracts the number of research days according to how many scientists you have assigned to that project; the project is done when the counter reaches zero. If a project will require 31 man days and you have 10 scientists assigned, it will take four days to complete (and you have wasted nine). You could assign a lot of scientists until you reach the point where it might be completed, and gradually taper them. But [[PROJECT.DAT|without cheating]], there's no way of telling just how long it will take. |
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==Research Progress== |
==Research Progress== |
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+ | ===Known versus Unknown Progress=== |
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− | The Progress part of the current Research screen will give you an idea of how things are going, but you will have to know how to read the information it is giving you. |
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− | <br> |
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− | <br> |
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− | <big>'''Unknown Progress'''</big> |
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+ | The game stops showing progress as Unknown when you have completed two-thirds of the average time needed to complete a project. By itself, this doesn't tell you much. |
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− | The first part of understanding the progress report is knowing why a project has an Unknown progress. This happens whenever a project has more than 2/3rds of its '''average''' research time left. Examples: |
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+ | However, the roll for your project's actual time can be anywhere from 50% to 150% of the average, so if you roll less than 67% of the average time, the progress of your newly-created project becomes immediately known - and you know you just got a good roll. It happens a sixth of the time (50% to 67% is 1/6th of the 50% - 150% range). |
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− | * Laser Weapons average 50 Man Days (MDs), so if you have 34 or more MDs left then it will be listed as Unknown |
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+ | *If your project is immediately known, it will take a mean of 58.33% of the average time to complete (7/12ths, halfway between 1/2 and 2/3rds). |
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− | * Psi Amps average 500 MDs, so if you have 334 or more MDs left then it will be listed as Unknown |
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+ | *If it's Unknown, your roll is from 67% to 150% of the average, with a mean of 108.33% of the average (13/12ths, halfway between 8/12ths and 18/12ths). |
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+ | Thus, a sixth of the time, it takes ~58% of the average research time to complete. The rest of the time, it takes ~108% of the average time. That's less than twice as long as initially-known projects, on average (13/7 = 1.86x). |
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+ | In a nutshell, Unknown projects take about as long as the Average. But a sixth of the time, you get a double-speed gift (a Known project). |
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− | Clearly this indicates an immediate fact that can be helpful (especially if you want to do some cheating), that if you create a project and assign even just one scientist to it and don't get Unknown, then you just got a good roll for the time required (more accurately, in the top 16.7% of possible results, or 1 in 6 projects). Let's walk through an example: |
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− | * Say a project has an '''average''' time of 120 MDs. Thus, it's roll can actually be 60 to 180 MDs. |
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− | * If you get the best possible roll - 60 MDs - the project is at 50% ''relative to the '''average''' time'' of 120 MDs. 50% is greater than a third, so it will not be at Unknown. |
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− | * The break-even point for a 120-average-MDs project would be a roll of 80 MDs. At 80, the algorithm thinks, "ok, 80 more MDs are needed; 120-80='''40''' MDs are gone, which is one third of 120 MDs. So it's not Unknown status any more." |
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− | * This range of 60 to 80 MDs is only one-sixth of the possible rolls for a 120 day project (60 to 180 MDs). Thus, you have to get in the top sixth of rolls to not see Unknown. |
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− | <br> |
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− | <big>'''Known Progress'''</big> |
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+ | You can't cancel a research project at a given base, so the only way to exploit Knowns "honestly" would be to try the project at additional bases. However, it would be a hassle to set up labs at lots of bases, especially given the fact that it only takes 3+ [[Laboratory|Labs]] a few months to do most of the research (see Total Time, below). But if you want to be cheesy, you can save and reload if you get an Unknown. |
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− | Okay, so eventually your project gets out of Unknown status due to the industrious sweat of your scientists and the progress of time (or alternately a bit of reloading of saves). Now we get back an actual progress rating of Poor, Average, Good or Excellent, and we need to understand what they mean. |
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+ | ===Progress Ratings=== |
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− | Actual Progress ratings are related again to the average project durations for the item being researched, but this time as we know it is related to the number of scientists on the project. So simply divide the number of assigned scientists by average project research time and convert to a percentage: |
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+ | Once your progress becomes known, ratings appear that correspond to a specific percent of the effort needed versus the average time for the project, as shown below. The ''minimum'' number of scientists needed for each rating is shown in the table above. The reciprocal of the percent shows how many days would be needed to complete the project with the minimum scientists for that rating, <u>on average</u>. "Inefficiency" is the percent of scientists wasted, on average, at that rating. It equals half of the percent assigned (sometimes you might hit the nail on the head and not waste a single scientist day, other times you might barely miss the mark and waste almost all your people the last day... but on average, you waste half of what's assigned on the last day of the project). |
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− | Scientists assigned / Average ManDays required * 100 = Progress Rating |
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− | {| {{ |
+ | {| {{StdCenterTable}} cellpadding=5 |
− | | {{StdDescTable Heading}} | |
+ | | {{StdDescTable Heading}} | Progress |
+ | Rating |
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− | | {{StdDescTable Heading}} | Progress Rating |
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+ | | {{StdDescTable Heading}} | Percent |
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+ | Assigned |
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+ | | {{StdDescTable Heading}} | Max. |
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+ | Days |
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+ | | {{StdDescTable Heading}} | Percent |
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+ | Inefficiency |
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|- |
|- |
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− | | Excellent || 26 |
+ | | Excellent || 26% || 3.85 || 13% |
|- |
|- |
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− | | Good || 14 |
+ | | Good || 14% || 7.14 || 7% |
|- |
|- |
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− | | Average || 8 |
+ | | Average || 8% || 12.50 || 4% |
− | |- |
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− | | Poor || >0 to <8 |
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− | |- |
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− | | None || 0 |
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|} |
|} |
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+ | :''Poor only needs a minimum of 1 scientist. If no scientists are assigned, progress will say None.'' |
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− | Note the progress rating is equivalent to the percentage progress you would make if you happen to roll exactly average when starting a project, so an average Excellent project will be at most 4 days to complete (26%*4), but you have to factor in the random element - i.e., that you actually have a target of somewhere between 50% and 150%, so the range if you are just inside Excellent is 2-6 days, for example. |
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− | |||
− | So to show against our previous examples, once they are not unknown: |
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− | |||
− | *Laser Weapons have an average project time of 50, so 0 gives None, 1 to 3 gives Poor, 4 to 6 gives Average, 7 to 12 gives Good, and 13 or more gives Excellent |
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− | *Psi Amps have an average project time of 500, so 0 gives None, 1 to 39 gives Poor, 40 to 69 gives Average, 70 to 129 gives Good, and 130 or more gives Excellent |
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− | |||
− | Note that the actual time left is not included in this calculation, so once it is out of unknown the progress seen on screen will only change if you change the number of scientists assigned. |
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− | |||
− | We can also deduce the range of maximum times left from the ratings as well, although unknown and poor have too high a range to be meaningful really (although you can divide the values shown by the number of scientists you have assigned, and reduce it proportionality if you have a project shorter than Grav Shield). |
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− | |||
− | {| {{StdDescTable}} width="25%" |
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− | | {{StdDescTable Heading}} | Named Rating |
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− | | {{StdDescTable Heading}} | Days Left |
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− | |- |
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− | | Excellent || 1 to 3 |
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− | |- |
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− | | Good || 1 to 5 |
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− | |- |
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− | | Average || 1 to 9 |
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− | |- |
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− | | Poor || 1 to 620 |
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− | |- |
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− | | Unknown || 1 to 1395 |
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− | |- |
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− | | None || Infinite |
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− | |} |
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+ | ===Insights into Research Progress=== |
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− | Notes: For Unknown 1395 is the worst roll on Grav Shield, and you might only have 1 man doing it, but on the other end for Laser Weapons you could have 34 Man Days left, but easily have that many scientists on it to complete it next midnight. For Poor it covers from a large range like Unknown, but you must have completed 2/3rds of it, so again for the highest average project time Grav Shield we get 930*(2/3), or 620. For long projects like Grav Shield you can be rated poor while having up to 74 scientists assigned due to their average time to complete being so high. |
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+ | [[File:ResearchProgressRateVersusEfficiency.gif|250px|thumb|right|Scientists Assigned versus Time To Completion and Efficiency]]Although the research system allows for some insights, ultimately they're not very practical; you can't readily use them to become much more efficient. |
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− | Of course really the only important thing here is that we are not seeing Unknown, at that point you know that you only have 2/3rds or less left, so at that point you can work it out more accurately just by: 66.7%/Progress Rating = Max Days left (round all fractions up). If you just started the project (or have never assigned anyone to it) you also know it is at least 50%, so 50%/Progress Rating = Min Days left at that point. |
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+ | *If you closely track scientist days, you can compute the maximum number of research days left. If the project approaches this max, you can use the info to avoid a lot of waste right toward the end. (If you know there's only 10 days left at most, don't keep 50 assigned.) However, you'd have to track every project even though it'd only wind up being useful for the small number that last real long. |
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+ | Perhaps, then, the only real insights are simple and fairly obvious: |
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+ | *Know what you're doing if you assign a high number of scientists (more than minimum needed for Excellent). You might want to track projects if they are important, and are using a large percent of your scientists. |
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+ | *Initially-known projects only need about half the average time; progress ratings under-estimate by 2. (Assigning the minimum for Average progress to an initially-known project gives it about 16% of effort, not 8%.) |
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+ | *Just be aware, in general, of the relationship between Progress Rating and efficiency of scientist use (see inset). Average or Good progress is also a good balance between time needed and efficiency. |
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+ | **Poor progress can drastically increase the time needed, for only tiny efficiency gains. |
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+ | **With Excellent progress, you might not finish it any faster no matter how many scientists you pile on - but you will become more and more inefficient. |
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== Total Research Time == |
== Total Research Time == |
Revision as of 17:16, 5 September 2012
Research Time
For a basic version of this table, see Research Hours.
Min.
Days |
Known
At |
Ave.
Days |
Max.
Days |
Research Project |
Ave. |
Good |
Exc. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
25 | 34 | 50 | 75 | Laser Weapons | 4 | 7 | 13 |
50 | 67 | 100 | 150 | Laser Pistol | 8 | 14 | 26 |
75 | 100 | 150 | 225 | Alien Entertainment | 12 | 21 | 39 |
75 | 100 | 150 | 225 | Alien Food | 12 | 21 | 39 |
75 | 100 | 150 | 225 | Alien Surgery | 12 | 21 | 39 |
75 | 100 | 150 | 225 | Examination Room | 12 | 21 | 39 |
85 | 114 | 170 | 255 | Live Terrorists (4 types) | 14 | 24 | 45 |
90 | 120 | 180 | 270 | Alien Corpses (11 types) | 15 | 26 | 47 |
90 | 120 | 180 | 270 | Motion Scanner | 15 | 26 | 47 |
90 | 120 | 180 | 270 | Personal Armor | 15 | 26 | 47 |
90 | 120 | 180 | 270 | Stun Bomb | 15 | 26 | 47 |
95 | 127 | 190 | 285 | Live Sectoid Commander | 16 | 27 | 50 |
96 | 128 | 192 | 288 | Live Aliens (22 types) | 16 | 27 | 50 |
100 | 134 | 200 | 300 | Alien Grenade | 16 | 28 | 52 |
103 | 137 | 205 | 308 | Power Suit | 17 | 29 | 54 |
105 | 140 | 210 | 315 | Medi-Kit | 17 | 30 | 55 |
150 | 200 | 300 | 450 | Alien Origins | 24 | 42 | 78 |
150 | 200 | 300 | 450 | Blaster Bomb | 24 | 42 | 78 |
150 | 200 | 300 | 450 | Laser Rifle | 24 | 42 | 78 |
165 | 220 | 330 | 495 | Flying Suit | 27 | 47 | 86 |
180 | 240 | 360 | 540 | Mind Shield | 29 | 51 | 94 |
200 | 267 | 400 | 600 | Alien Alloys | 32 | 56 | 104 |
200 | 267 | 400 | 600 | Heavy Plasma Clip | 32 | 56 | 104 |
200 | 267 | 400 | 600 | Plasma Pistol Clip | 32 | 56 | 104 |
200 | 267 | 400 | 600 | Plasma Rifle Clip | 32 | 56 | 104 |
210 | 280 | 420 | 630 | Laser Cannon | 34 | 59 | 110 |
210 | 280 | 420 | 630 | Psi-Lab | 34 | 59 | 110 |
225 | 300 | 450 | 675 | Elerium-115 | 36 | 63 | 117 |
225 | 300 | 450 | 675 | UFO Construction | 36 | 63 | 117 |
225 | 300 | 450 | 675 | UFO Navigation | 36 | 63 | 117 |
225 | 300 | 450 | 675 | UFO Power Source | 36 | 63 | 117 |
230 | 307 | 460 | 690 | Heavy Laser | 37 | 65 | 120 |
250 | 334 | 500 | 750 | Psi-Amp | 40 | 70 | 130 |
250 | 334 | 500 | 750 | The Martian Solution | 40 | 70 | 130 |
255 | 340 | 510 | 765 | Laser Defenses | 41 | 72 | 133 |
275 | 367 | 550 | 825 | Small Launcher | 44 | 77 | 143 |
300 | 400 | 600 | 900 | Cydonia or Bust | 48 | 84 | 156 |
300 | 400 | 600 | 900 | Mind Probe | 48 | 84 | 156 |
300 | 400 | 600 | 900 | New Fighter Craft (Firestorm) | 48 | 84 | 156 |
300 | 400 | 600 | 900 | Plasma Pistol | 48 | 84 | 156 |
310 | 414 | 620 | 930 | Plasma Defenses | 50 | 87 | 162 |
330 | 440 | 660 | 990 | Plasma Beam | 53 | 93 | 172 |
335 | 447 | 670 | 1005 | Hyper-Wave Decoder | 54 | 94 | 175 |
350 | 467 | 700 | 1050 | New Fighter-Transporter (Lightning) | 56 | 98 | 182 |
350 | 467 | 700 | 1050 | Plasma Rifle | 56 | 98 | 182 |
400 | 534 | 800 | 1200 | Fusion Defenses | 64 | 112 | 208 |
400 | 534 | 800 | 1200 | Heavy Plasma | 64 | 112 | 208 |
440 | 587 | 880 | 1320 | Fusion Missile (Fusion Ball & Launcher) | 71 | 124 | 229 |
450 | 600 | 900 | 1350 | Blaster Launcher | 72 | 126 | 234 |
450 | 600 | 900 | 1350 | Ultimate Craft (Avenger) | 72 | 126 | 234 |
465 | 620 | 930 | 1395 | Grav Shield | 75 | 131 | 242 |
Minimum Days is the minimum number of scientist-days needed to research this project (50% of Average Days). Known At is the point at which progress goes from Unknown to a progress rating (67% of Average Days). Average Days is the average number of scientist-days needed for this project (from RESEARCH.DAT). Maximum Days is the maximum number of scientist-days needed to research this project (150% of Average Days). Average, Good, and Excellent shows the minimum number of scientists needed for this progress rating (see below).
Research Time Basics
- The game starts with the average hours needed (from RESEARCH.DAT) and rolls to see how long a specific project will take (±50%). Laser Weapons take an average of 50 research days, but in practice can take from 25 to 75 days. The time it will take is determined when the project is started, and is stored in PROJECT.DAT.
- Projects only progress and check completion at midnight, so what scientists are doing the rest of the day – traveling between bases, on different projects, or sitting in the coffee room unassigned – is irrelevant. All that matters is what (if any) projects they are on at midnight. This single check also means projects take a minimum of one day.
- Each midnight, the game subtracts the number of research days according to how many scientists you have assigned to that project; the project is done when the counter reaches zero. If a project will require 31 man days and you have 10 scientists assigned, it will take four days to complete (and you have wasted nine). You could assign a lot of scientists until you reach the point where it might be completed, and gradually taper them. But without cheating, there's no way of telling just how long it will take.
- The efficiency increases as the number of scientists on a project decreases. If you run several projects in parallel, you'll waste fewer man days overall. In the extreme case, you'd assign only one scientist on every project and would be sure that not a single man day will be lost, but it would take months or years to get anything done. You decide.
- Even if you do "waste" scientist-days on the last day of a project, you may well get the opportunity to regain much more time than was wasted, due to the Research Rollover bug.
Research Progress
Known versus Unknown Progress
The game stops showing progress as Unknown when you have completed two-thirds of the average time needed to complete a project. By itself, this doesn't tell you much.
However, the roll for your project's actual time can be anywhere from 50% to 150% of the average, so if you roll less than 67% of the average time, the progress of your newly-created project becomes immediately known - and you know you just got a good roll. It happens a sixth of the time (50% to 67% is 1/6th of the 50% - 150% range).
- If your project is immediately known, it will take a mean of 58.33% of the average time to complete (7/12ths, halfway between 1/2 and 2/3rds).
- If it's Unknown, your roll is from 67% to 150% of the average, with a mean of 108.33% of the average (13/12ths, halfway between 8/12ths and 18/12ths).
Thus, a sixth of the time, it takes ~58% of the average research time to complete. The rest of the time, it takes ~108% of the average time. That's less than twice as long as initially-known projects, on average (13/7 = 1.86x).
In a nutshell, Unknown projects take about as long as the Average. But a sixth of the time, you get a double-speed gift (a Known project).
You can't cancel a research project at a given base, so the only way to exploit Knowns "honestly" would be to try the project at additional bases. However, it would be a hassle to set up labs at lots of bases, especially given the fact that it only takes 3+ Labs a few months to do most of the research (see Total Time, below). But if you want to be cheesy, you can save and reload if you get an Unknown.
Progress Ratings
Once your progress becomes known, ratings appear that correspond to a specific percent of the effort needed versus the average time for the project, as shown below. The minimum number of scientists needed for each rating is shown in the table above. The reciprocal of the percent shows how many days would be needed to complete the project with the minimum scientists for that rating, on average. "Inefficiency" is the percent of scientists wasted, on average, at that rating. It equals half of the percent assigned (sometimes you might hit the nail on the head and not waste a single scientist day, other times you might barely miss the mark and waste almost all your people the last day... but on average, you waste half of what's assigned on the last day of the project).
Progress
Rating |
Percent
Assigned |
Max.
Days |
Percent
Inefficiency |
Excellent | 26% | 3.85 | 13% |
Good | 14% | 7.14 | 7% |
Average | 8% | 12.50 | 4% |
- Poor only needs a minimum of 1 scientist. If no scientists are assigned, progress will say None.
Insights into Research Progress
Although the research system allows for some insights, ultimately they're not very practical; you can't readily use them to become much more efficient.
- If you closely track scientist days, you can compute the maximum number of research days left. If the project approaches this max, you can use the info to avoid a lot of waste right toward the end. (If you know there's only 10 days left at most, don't keep 50 assigned.) However, you'd have to track every project even though it'd only wind up being useful for the small number that last real long.
Perhaps, then, the only real insights are simple and fairly obvious:
- Know what you're doing if you assign a high number of scientists (more than minimum needed for Excellent). You might want to track projects if they are important, and are using a large percent of your scientists.
- Initially-known projects only need about half the average time; progress ratings under-estimate by 2. (Assigning the minimum for Average progress to an initially-known project gives it about 16% of effort, not 8%.)
- Just be aware, in general, of the relationship between Progress Rating and efficiency of scientist use (see inset). Average or Good progress is also a good balance between time needed and efficiency.
- Poor progress can drastically increase the time needed, for only tiny efficiency gains.
- With Excellent progress, you might not finish it any faster no matter how many scientists you pile on - but you will become more and more inefficient.
Total Research Time
The total time needed to research all technologies is 21,215 days, plus another 576 to research The Minimum Three, plus another 6,500 or so to add every alien species, ship type, and mission type entry to the UFOpaedia (about 28,300 days total).
This can be compared against the total time needed for 1 Scientist, 50 Scientists (1 lab), 100 (2 labs), and so on. Numbers were composed by taking the average of the integer-truncated min and max for each project, then summing these together for all projects:
Note: the following figures are based on an earlier (incomplete) list of research topics. The specific numbers are no longer correct, although the "efficiency" figures are likely to be similar.
Scientists 1 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 Days 20215 391 190 125 94 75 67 58 56 52 49 Months 663 12.82 6.23 4.10 3.08 2.46 2.20 1.89 1.84 1.69 1.61 Efficiency -- +3% +6% +8% +8% +8% +1% +0% -10% -13% -17%
"Months" are considered to be 30.5 days long.
Efficiency shows how much time is gained or lost versus a pure case with absolutely no integer truncation or 1-day minima (see Notes). As can be seen, it is maximal around 3-5 labs, then starts dropping and keeps dropping.
Note that going from 3 labs to 4 only saves you about a month -- which is about how long it takes to set up the lab! In practice, 2-3 labs are quite sufficient to acquire all alien technologies in a reasonable time frame.
See Also
X-COM: Enemy Unknown/UFO Defense | |
Research: | Basics • Popular Sequences and Tips • Trees • Live Aliens • Technical Details |