Talk:UFO Crash Recovery

Just dumping a revised table of probabilities for Power Source destruction on the Supply Ship which reflects the 75% explosion rate found in the executable.

  PS Explodes     PSs    Odds for PS ...      Cum.   E115
  L    M    R    Left     L     M     R      Odds    Left
  Y    Y    Y      0     0.75  0.75  0.75    .422    0.00
  Y    N    Y      0     0.75  0.25  0.75    .141    0.00
  Y    Y    N      R     0.75  0.75  0.25    .141    7.03   Note 1
  N    Y    Y      0     0.25  0.75  0.75    .141    0.00   Note 2
  N    Y    N      0     0.25  0.75  0.25    .047    0.00
  Y    N    N      R     0.75  0.25  0.25    .047    2.34
  N    N    Y      L     0.25  0.25  0.75    .047    2.34
  N    N    N     All    0.25  0.25  0.25    .016    2.34
                                   Totals   1.000   14.06

The totals row is the addition of the unrounded values in the column above, not the rounded values as shown. If you add a rounded columns, the numbers are 1.002 and 14.05.

Have no idea how the PS Left Likelihood table is calculated, perhaps someone could fill me in? I spent the better part of an hour trying different combinations with no luck at replicating the values. Once that is known, then the table can be rewritten to reflect the 75% probability instead of the current 70%. --Zombie 09:27, 9 November 2008 (CST)

I've patched it in, preferring consistency of the summary table over exactness.

* All-three is one row: N N N

* left-only is one row: N N Y

* right-only is two rows: Y Y N and Y N N . The probability of the middle power plant blowing up goes irrelevant, so it's simplest just to directly calculate this (0.25*0.75)

* none is everything else; I filled this in by "just subtracting".

-- Zaimoni 9:39, 9 November 2008 (CST)