Talk:Kill Modelling

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Does this take into account 2x2 units getting hit 4 times by explosions? Based on the reaper vs blaster bomb result, I'm guessing it doesn't. --MB 11:33, 2 February 2007 (PST)

Hi MB,

No, that's not included in the model per se; big aliens are treated as a single-square target with that alien's stats.

That said, they die when one quadrant dies, AFAIK. (A blast individually affects each of the four quadrants separately, and that as per the rules of explosions decreasing by each tile outward from GZ.) It's possible that by chance the other quadrants may take more damage than the GZ/targetted quadrant I modelled. Still, one expects the GZ/targetted quadrant to take the most blast damage on average, since that's where the explosion is envisioned as coursing outward from. (Except for the "at edge" blasts... they should be seen as having only one quadrant of the four being hit, I guess.)

So the model is probably fairly accurate for 2x2 units, but may over-estimate a little (i.e., big units may die with a little less hitting than shown)... probability/statistics can get funny when "selection" occurs, which this is an instance of, because the critter dies as soon as any one quadrant dies (it selects for whichever quadrant actually got the most damage, never mind averages). It's an interesting question, really... if I ever re-do the model, I would try to include that.

Let me take this chance to say, I hope everyone keeps in mind that my kill modelling is oriented toward experience training, where you're deliberately trying to keep the target alive (as modelled by, hitting two sides' armor, whichever has more armor as of any given shot). In real battle, of course, many shots will be hitting only one armor facing. This doesn't apply to GZ explosions, since they only affect one facing (Under armor), but does apply to any modeling of blast damage farther than GZ+1.

I'll make a note on the page pointing others here, in case others have the same question. Thanks! - MikeTheRed 16:36, 2 February 2007 (PST)

Hang on, I thought a 2x2 unit has only one set of stats; in particular, one HP value. So if a reaper gets hit by a blaster bomb, minimum damage is 100 at the centre + 90 everywhere else, for a total of 370. Under armour (4) reduces this, but not by much. Mr. Reaper should now have about -220 hit points and therefore be very dead. In fact, I think even an alien grenade should kill a reaper every time. (45+3*40=165).

Well there's only one way to settle this... Next time I see a floater terror ship, I will let it land and go nuts with blaster bombs and grenades. In the interests of science, of course. --MB 01:57, 3 February 2007 (PST)

LOL. God forbid we should end the alien menace so harshly... next thing you know, they'll be giving us gifts to forget the whole Sydney Terrorist attack thing. You could crash the whole .exe!

I doubt a 2x2 has a "central damage stat". It would mean any explosive would kill them instantly. Pretty much.

You are always welcome to prove anyone wrong. There are a lot of theories here that anyone would love to have proved wrong with real data.

These pages are not hostile arguments... they are enjoyable parlor discussions of data showing how things actually are. Men in leather armchairs.

Ok, women too. In leather.

Anyway. Zombie has worked on this. Send him a note if you want a quick response. He's all over StrategyCore with the same handle. - MikeTheRed

The Reaper quarters do share 1 set of stats. Each large unit takes up 4 unitpos.dat slots - one per quarter. Each quarter only reference a single reference in unitref.dat.

Don't forget that every attack is treated as a separate attack, and will therefore be subject to armour and the damage multiplier every time. So yes, Reapers do fall very easily to weak HE damage. But for the tougher nuts like the Sectopods, they compensate by having heavier armour to ward off each of the attacks.


Um, yeah. It's like what NKF said. 2x2 units are basically like 4 single units glued together. It has 4 sets of values in unitpos.dat to account for position on the battlescape, but only one set of "vitals" in unitref.dat.

Any explosive greater than 8 HE can damage beginner level Reapers, and 10 HE for Experienced-Superhuman (given enough shots of course). For a guaranteed kill we need to remember two numbers also: 150 (148 health + 2 under armor) for beginner level and 152 (148 health + 4 under armor). The HWP Rocket (85 HE listed, 42+[37*3]=153 damage) is just barely enough to do the trick for any Reaper. These numbers all assume a GZ explosion for one of the quarters.

For what it's worth, I just set up a testing scenario with 2 beginner level Reapers on a terror site a few days back. All I have to do now is fire up BB's logger, create a AHK script and run a few trials. Will let you know what I find out. --Zombie 08:16, 3 February 2007 (PST)

They only have one Unitref entry? Arg... that means my kill model is way off, for explosions - the will die a lot faster than I show. Let us know what you find, Z! - MikeTheRed 07:11, 4 February 2007 (PST)

Haven't had much time to get a test going on 2x2 units, but will get to it sooner or later.

Anyhow, I wanted to respond to this:

"Although the sectopod would be great for target practice - being invulnerable to a SP or even laser pistol - it can't be disarmed. Same for the cyberdisc, another tough creature."

Technically, you are correct. The weapons cannot be removed in-game. They can't be removed via editing the executable either. However, you could edit the Sectopod's/Cyberdisc's weapon accuracy in the executable down to 0% for all the shot types (which I think removes the shot type from the weapon menu). Then make the weapon damage 0. Result is a perfectly harmless creature, well, except for the Cyberdisc which has that nasty auto-destruct feature. And of course, this is via modding which plays no role in kill modeling, but it may allow you to test the creatures out without fear of retribution. :)

I should also mention that the tables given in the article page are for Experienced-Superhuman skill levels only and do not apply to Beginner where armor values are 1/2 the core. Edit: nevermind, didn't read far enough down in the table. --Zombie 09:06, 5 July 2007 (PDT)

I've learned a lot of exceptions and technicalities over the months. Chiefly, I wish I had made a second table of kill modeling not focused on the "firing squad" scenario, but instead covering the "fighting for your life in the early game" situation. Damn, there have been a number of good games lately. They seem to come in rushes. --MikeTheRed 00:08, 6 July 2007 (PDT)

It would be nice to mention that this model work only on beginner difficulty. For example: on superhuman difficulty level flying suit doesn't protect veterans or elite even from single hit of heavy plasma in frontal armor. Based on huge experience and brutal game testing. -Demon0n 17:41, 20 March 2011 (EDT)

Hi DemonOn,
As shown in the spreadsheet on the Extended Model page, it takes a minimum of one hit and an average of 3.1 ± 2.2 hits to kill an elite soldier in Flying Armor with a heavy plasma. And you're right - this is a conservative estimate (i.e., one could die more quickly), because my "experience training" model assumed one was trying to hit at least two sides. I trust you're not implying that armor changes according to difficulty level; it doesn't... you won't die more quickly on the highest levels due to worse armor or better heavy plasmas, but because aliens shoot better and survive longer (see Alien Stats), and of course, they're not waiting for you to turn so they can hit you in two different sides. You're more than welcome to edit the big Author's Note I made... I doubt I will get around to working with this model again.
When possible, sign your notes with -~~~~ ... if authors don't do that, soon enough, nobody will know who said what, when.
Save humanity from the alien threat! -MikeTheRed 23:07, 18 March 2011 (EDT)
Looks like you are right. Never played others difficulty levels except the first walkthrough(beginner... It was long time ago...). Tested that today and it seems like there is some kind of "dice throw" model used "hit_no_penetration/hit_penetrated(injured + armor damage)/hit_critical(killed)" among other calculations. -Demon0n 17:41, 20 March 2011 (EDT)
Again, please sign your comments!
The formula for projectile Damage is simple enough; take the rated power of the weapon, double it, and choose a random number from 0 to that figure. Multiply the result by the relevant damage modifier percentage, subtract the unit's relevant armour stat, and you've got your final damage figure.
For example, the Heavy Plasma is rated at 115 damage. That means it'll roll from 0 to 230. A human takes 100% of the damage, so the result is not multiplied, but you still subtract the frontal armour value (110). That means the final damage dealt will be anywhere from 0 to 120, with a near 50% chance of no damage being dealt at all.
The most health any given unit can have is 60, so that's roughly a 25% chance of "instant" death (keeping in mind that fatal wounds have the potential to finish the job); assuming the unit has as much health as it can (full training + no previous damage that mission), is being hit from the front only once, etc... But assuming the shot has connected, there's only one real damage roll after that. -  Bomb Bloke (Talk/Contribs) 18:35, 19 March 2011 (EDT)
I was going to point to the Damage page for the specifics, but after reading it I've found it to be very confusing. Time to mark it for a rewrite! -NKF 18:39, 19 March 2011 (EDT)